What a seizure map cannot prove
A dot can locate an interception. A line between dots introduces a claim about movement. Neither tells us how much cocaine went undetected.
Cocaine · Open sources · Research methodsTHE RESEARCH DESK
Research & analysis
Research and method notes on power, movement and resources across the Sahel. Each publication states its evidence limits and research cut-off.
Barrick used a 16% WACC to value its Mali mine
Loulo-Gounkoto generated a 53% EBITDA margin in Q2. Its valuation assumptions and excluded Mali costs show why that result does not settle the investment case.
Mali · Barrick · Gold · Mining riskSahel mining: what changed after July
Fekola’s permit, Allied’s minority investment and Dasa’s revised timetable: five company disclosures checked against the July mining snapshot.
Mali · Niger · Filings · Gold · UraniumThe road to Anéfis
A convoy reached Anéfis; a later ambush showed why one completed journey cannot establish routine control of the Gao road.
Mali · Armed conflict · Open sourcesMali after France: a harsher bargain
Mali’s change of security partner is tested against civilian-harm data, refugee testimony and the limits of military control.
Mali · France · JNIM · RussiaMauritania is carrying Mali’s war
Updated UNHCR counts clarify the scale of displacement. Eastern Mauritania needs shared services and protection alongside border security.
Mali · Mauritania · Border policy · RefugeesCocaine across the Sahel: the protection economy
Selected overland cocaine corridors reveal a market for protection. Their traffic share is unknown, and most onward West African movement remains maritime.
Algeria · Libya · Wider Sahel · Cocaine · Organised crimeThe Sovereignty Premium
Resource control changes bargaining power. Public value depends on open contracts, capable institutions and budgets that citizens can inspect.
Gold · Oil · UraniumThe Confederation Test
The AES has built a confederal identity around passports, military coordination and a break with ECOWAS. Citizens will judge it through rules, services and security.
AES · ECOWAS · GovernanceThe Sahel: testing the Middle East analogy
The Middle East analogy helps frame foreign competition and cross-border conflict. Sahelian institutions and livelihoods require their own analysis.
Climate · Regional order · SecurityResearch register · updated 6 September 2026
What would change our mind
10 publications contain 87 linked source references. The register records each conclusion, evidence limit and reason for review.
Open the research registerReading the work
Follow the source trail.
Facts, attributed claims and analysis have different limits. Read the method note beside the conclusion.
Each article describes its AI assistance and the scope of its source checks.
Read the editorial standards