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SAHEL
FUTURES

Research & analysis

Research and method notes on power, movement and resources across the Sahel. Each publication states its evidence limits and research cut-off.

Assessment23 September 2026 · 6 min read

Mali’s troops needed air support. Then JNIM targeted the airfield

The disaster at Dioura and shelling at Sévaré expose a harder test for Mali’s Russian partnership: keeping isolated troops within reach of help.

Mali · Armed conflict · JNIM · Russia · Security
Assessment11 September 2026 · 3 min read · Updated 23 September 2026

Mali’s fuel blockade reaches beyond the petrol queue

School closures and electricity dependence show how attacks on fuel deliveries disrupt public services.

Mali · Armed conflict · Governance · JNIM · Oil
Method note6 September 2026 · 2 min read · Updated 23 September 2026

What a seizure map cannot prove

An illustrative calculation shows why a rise in seizures cannot, by itself, measure growth in trafficking.

Cocaine · Open sources · Research methods
Market note18 July 2026 · 3 min read · Updated 23 September 2026

Barrick’s Mali mine: what a 16% discount rate means

A quarterly operating margin and a long-term valuation rate answer different questions about Loulo-Gounkoto.

Mali · Barrick · Gold · Mining risk
Number check18 July 2026 · 3 min read · Updated 23 September 2026

Sahel mining: five changes in the August filings

A permit, a minority investment and a delayed uranium timetable replace parts of the July picture.

Mali · Niger · Filings · Gold · Uranium
Assessment12 July 2026 · 3 min read · Updated 23 September 2026

Mali’s civilian-harm record demands scrutiny of state forces

ACLED’s 2025 figures and survivor reporting put Malian forces and their Russian partners under scrutiny alongside jihadist groups.

Mali · Armed conflict · JNIM · Russia
Assessment12 July 2026 · 3 min read · Updated 23 September 2026

Mali’s displacement reaches Mauritania’s public services

Dated population records and a health-service account show why the response must include the communities where refugees live.

Mali · Mauritania · Border policy · Refugees
Assessment12 July 2026 · 3 min read · Updated 23 September 2026

Sahel cocaine: the evidence on routes and armed groups

Recorded seizures establish interceptions. Claims about ownership and protection need evidence that connects people to a shipment or payment.

Wider Sahel · Cocaine · Organised crime
Assessment10 July 2026 · 3 min read · Updated 23 September 2026

Mali and Niger’s resource plans: follow the receipts

Refinery construction, a nationalisation announcement and an oil agreement each leave a different question about public value.

Mali · Niger · Gold · Oil · Uranium
Assessment10 July 2026 · 3 min read · Updated 23 September 2026

The AES confederation: three announcements to test

Withdrawal from ECOWAS, passport plans and a proposed joint force require different evidence of implementation.

Wider Sahel · AES · ECOWAS · Governance

What would change our mind

10 publications contain 39 linked source references. The register records each conclusion, evidence limit and reason for review.

Open the research register

Follow the source trail.

Facts, attributed claims and analysis have different limits. Read the method note beside the conclusion.

Each article describes its AI assistance and the scope of its source checks.

Read the editorial standards