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Sahel Futures Independent research project Opening paper

Papers and working analysis

Daniel Spurr writes these papers from public records, reporting, datasets and institutional documents. He names each source and research cut-off.

What would change our mind

Nine papers contain 87 linked source references. Daniel records each paper’s current conclusion, known limit and next review trigger.

Open the research register
01
Number check18 July 2026 · 8 min read

Five Sahel mining numbers that need a date stamp

Daniel checks five current claims about Barrick, B2Gold, Resolute, Allied Gold and Global Atomic against the latest company disclosures, then supplies wording an editor can use.

Mali · Niger · Filings · Gold · Uranium
02
Market note18 July 2026 · 9 min read

Barrick’s Mali restart faces a 2026 cost test

Barrick beat its first-quarter restart plan at Loulo-Gounkoto. Daniel reconciles the mine’s production bases, settlement payments, royalty burden and full-year cost guide.

Mali · Barrick · Gold · Mining risk
03
Assessment12 July 2026 · 17 min read

Cocaine across the Sahel: the protection economy

Cocaine reaches West Africa by sea and air. Daniel maps the Algeria- and Libya-facing branches, then traces the officials, brokers and armed protectors who make them durable.

Algeria · Libya · Wider Sahel · Cocaine · Organised crime
04
Assessment12 July 2026 · 13 min read

Mauritania is carrying Mali’s war

Hodh Chargui receives the people, livestock and trauma that Mali's armed actors push across the border. Daniel examines the pressure on host communities and the security value of funding protection.

Mali · Mauritania · Border policy · Refugees
05
Assessment12 July 2026 · 17 min read

Mali after France: a harsher bargain

France's security model had lost public trust. Mali's rulers replaced it with Russian forces, fewer independent monitors and a longer military transition. Daniel tests the result against civilian-harm data and refugee testimony.

Mali · France · JNIM · Russia
06
Open-source check12 July 2026 · 9 min read

The road to Anéfis

A relief convoy reached Anéfis after attacks along the road from Gao. Daniel separates entry into the town, control of the military camp and access to the road.

Mali · Armed conflict · Open sources
07
Research paper10 July 2026 · 18 min read

The Sahel: testing the Middle East analogy

Analysts use the Middle East analogy to trace cross-border conflict and competing security partners. Daniel tests it against the Sahel’s political economy, social geography and regional institutions.

Climate · Regional order · Security
08
Working paper10 July 2026 · 12 min read

The Confederation Test

The AES has built a confederal identity around passports, military coordination and a break with ECOWAS. Citizens will judge it through rules, services and security.

AES · ECOWAS · Governance
09
Working paper10 July 2026 · 13 min read

The Sovereignty Premium

Resource control changes bargaining power. Public value depends on open contracts, capable institutions and budgets that citizens can inspect.

Gold · Oil · Uranium

Check the method beside the conclusion.

Daniel labels source facts, claims, assessments and scenarios. He records dataset limits and access gaps beside the evidence.

Daniel records material AI assistance in the method note and reviews the sources, argument and corrections under his own name.

Read the editorial standards