Research register
Ten research articles are in publication as of 23 September 2026, including a new report on Dioura and Sévaré. The nine earlier articles were rewritten on 11 September after we removed unsupported claims; two other articles were withdrawn when their arguments did not survive review.
Mali’s troops needed air support. Then JNIM targeted the airfield
Published 23 September 2026 · AFP, AP and Reuters reporting; attributed X posts and archive imagery
- Evidence cut-off
- 23 September 2026
- Conclusion
- The Dioura losses and attacks claimed near Sévaré test whether Mali’s military and its Russian partners can support isolated garrisons.
- Evidence limits
- The reported Dioura toll comes from AFP’s sources. Accounts disagree whether the figure of 33 for Sévaré and Konna means deaths or combined casualties. Sahel Futures has not authenticated the combat imagery, verified aircraft losses or established that air operations stopped.
- What would prompt another review
- Independent evidence of Dioura’s garrison status, dated flight or damage records at Sévaré, and corroborated casualty figures.
Mali’s fuel blockade reaches beyond the petrol queue
Rewritten 11 September 2026 · 3 min read · 5 source references
- Evidence cut-off
- Reports through 11 September 2026; events and operating data dated below
- Conclusion
- Judge supply recovery through usable services and civilian protection as well as deliveries.
- Evidence limits
- The article uses dated reporting and attributed operator information. It gives no current fuel-stock estimate. We checked the Reuters reopening description, not the video’s provenance. We conducted no field interviews or engineering inspection.
- What would prompt another review
- Dated service-interruption data, independently documented fuel access or audited performance of a public-service power project.
What a seizure map cannot prove
Rewritten 11 September 2026 · 2 min read · 1 source reference
- Evidence cut-off
- 6 September 2026
- Conclusion
- Seizure totals need an interception denominator before they can estimate traffic growth; map connections need evidence linking the cases.
- Evidence limits
- The numerical example is hypothetical and reproducible. The source supplies background for the linked assessment, not an interception-rate estimate. This note adds no seizure cases or route data.
- What would prompt another review
- A dataset with documented case coverage, enforcement changes and an independently supported interception-rate estimate.
Barrick’s Mali mine: what a 16% discount rate means
Rewritten 11 September 2026 · 3 min read · 2 source references
- Evidence cut-off
- 13 August 2026
- Conclusion
- The 53% quarterly EBITDA margin and 16% valuation discount rate measure different things and cannot be combined into an investment return.
- Evidence limits
- Company filings support the reported measures. Calculations use their stated units and ownership bases. This explanation does not reconstruct the valuation, audit the mine or recommend an investment.
- What would prompt another review
- A completed valuation allocation or mine-level disclosure allowing a consistent reconciliation of earnings, capital spending and cash movements.
Sahel mining: five changes in the August filings
Rewritten 11 September 2026 · 3 min read · 8 source references
- Evidence cut-off
- 13 August 2026
- Conclusion
- Each disclosure changes a particular permission, operating requirement, ownership transaction or financing-dependent schedule.
- Evidence limits
- Issuer releases establish what management reported. Second-half requirements and placement proceeds are arithmetic, not forecasts. Figures retain each issuer’s ownership basis. Sahel Futures conducted no mine inspection or independent financial audit.
- What would prompt another review
- The next operating results, a revised production forecast or a completed Dasa financing package with disclosed conditions.
Sahel cocaine: the evidence on routes and armed groups
Rewritten 11 September 2026 · 3 min read · 2 source references
- Evidence cut-off
- 13 July 2026; historical cases dated below
- Conclusion
- The available seizure and institutional evidence supports specific trafficking and facilitation claims, not a single owner or a reconstructed regional route.
- Evidence limits
- The Reuters case is attributed to police. The UNODC report supplies historical findings and seizure figures; the copy hosted by InSight Crime is the same report, not separate corroboration. Sahel Futures has not reconstructed shipment routes or measured trafficking volume.
- What would prompt another review
- Case records connecting a shipment, payment or protection act to a specific person or organisation.
Mali’s civilian-harm record demands scrutiny of state forces
Rewritten 11 September 2026 · 3 min read · 3 source references
- Evidence cut-off
- 12 July 2026
- Conclusion
- Dated civilian-harm reporting supports scrutiny and incident-level investigation, not a causal ranking of foreign partnerships.
- Evidence limits
- The article attributes event estimates and survivor reporting to their publishers. Sahel Futures did not reproduce ACLED’s microdata, interview survivors or establish criminal responsibility. Published responses are those recorded by the original reporters.
- What would prompt another review
- Independent incident-level investigations, command records or publicly documented accountability measures.
Mali’s displacement reaches Mauritania’s public services
Rewritten 11 September 2026 · 3 min read · 3 source references
- Evidence cut-off
- Original analysis: 12 July 2026; population update: 11 September 2026
- Conclusion
- Population figures establish different measures of scale; local service decisions need evidence about access, capacity and continued funding.
- Evidence limits
- UNHCR’s national and regional counts have different update dates. Its broader estimate uses different coverage. Le Monde’s reporting is historical; WHO describes its supported programme. No independent census or service-outcome study was conducted.
- What would prompt another review
- A synchronized population release, local service-capacity records or evaluated outcomes for refugee and host residents.
The AES confederation: three announcements to test
Rewritten 11 September 2026 · 3 min read · 3 source references
- Evidence cut-off
- 10 July 2026
- Conclusion
- Withdrawal, a passport plan and a force announcement require separate evidence of rules, issuance and operations.
- Evidence limits
- This is a historical review of the cited announcements. It does not certify present border practice, passport rollout or deployment. The proposed follow-up tests are editorial analysis.
- What would prompt another review
- Published implementation records and independently documented border or operational outcomes.
Mali and Niger’s resource plans: follow the receipts
Rewritten 11 September 2026 · 3 min read · 6 source references
- Evidence cut-off
- 10 July 2026
- Conclusion
- Public value requires evidence connecting resource agreements and operations to receipts and spending; the cited announcements do not establish that result.
- Evidence limits
- The article uses dated reporting of government and company statements. Sahel Futures has not inspected the underlying contracts, traced treasury receipts or determined the legal outcome of the SOMAIR dispute.
- What would prompt another review
- Published contracts, operating records and reconciled company payments and public receipts.
Withdrawn articles
On 11 September 2026, we withdrew two articles after removing claims that lacked sufficient support:
- The road to Anéfis. The central convoy chronology depended on sources we could not retrieve. Removing those claims left no adequately supported account of the event.
- The Sahel: testing the Middle East analogy. The broad analogy depended on unsupported factual assertions and causal judgments. The remaining evidence did not sustain the article’s central comparison.
The original articles have been removed from publication. We retain private copies for the correction record.
Source counts describe references, not independent corroboration. Several publications can repeat the same company release or dataset. Read each article’s source note for those relationships.