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SAHEL
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Research register · updated 6 September 2026

What would change our mind

Each entry states the paper’s conclusion, the limits of its evidence and the developments that would require a review.

10publications
87linked source references
10 Jul–6 Sepresearch cut-offs

The September review updated the five-company mining analysis, corrected Mauritania’s population estimate, added a convoy follow-up and clarified evidence limits across the research. The seizure-map method note remains the newest publication. Older research cut-offs remain visible; an editorial correction does not certify a fresh review of every claim.

Use the register alongside each paper’s dated source notes. It makes the argument open to challenge without treating an editorial judgement as a statistical score.

01

Method note · Research cut-off: 6 September 2026

What a seizure map cannot prove

Conclusion at the stated cut-off

Interception, route continuity, market growth and ownership each require separate evidence.

Known limit

This note adds no new seizure cases or estimate of total traffic.

Review when

A source correction or connected case record that changes the route interpretation.

1 linked source referenceUNODC’s 2024 assessment; historical data and an illustrative arithmetic example. No new September seizure cases.
02

Number check · Research cut-off: 6 September 2026; filings through 13 August

Sahel mining: what changed after July

Conclusion at the stated cut-off

The five assets face different disclosed conditions; update each from its own filings.

Known limit

Issuer disclosures and arithmetic; no independent site inspection. Guidance is conditional.

Review when

Next operating results, revised guidance, completed Dasa financing or a material regulatory change.

8 linked source referencesEight issuer publications, including quarterly results, permit confirmation and completed transaction announcements. Calculations are reproducible; operating conditions were not independently inspected.
03

Analysis · Research cut-off: 13 August 2026

Barrick used a 16% WACC to value its Mali mine

Conclusion at the stated cut-off

Loulo-Gounkoto can generate a strong quarterly operating margin while Barrick’s valuation discounts its future cash flows.

Known limit

The 16% WACC is not a pure sovereign-risk measure. The 53% EBITDA margin is not a complete cash-return measure.

Review when

H2 production and AISC, final Mali tax reconciliation, completed purchase-price allocation or the North American IPO prospectus.

6 linked source referencesBarrick annual and quarterly filings and company announcements. One quarter of restart data does not establish steady-state costs.
04

Assessment · Research cut-off: 13 July 2026

Cocaine across the Sahel: the protection economy

Conclusion at the stated cut-off

Traffickers move cocaine through several West African and Sahara-facing corridors. Officials, brokers and armed actors sell the protection that keeps those routes open.

Known limit

Corrected the 2015–2020 baseline and cannabis ranking. Seizure growth alone cannot establish market growth.

Review when

A new UNODC assessment, a court record that names protectors or a seizure that establishes a new country-level branch.

12 linked source referencesUN drug-market reporting, a UN sanctions account, police cases and field reporting. Known limit: Daniel keeps the map at country and hub level. Seizure records identify police contact with the market, but they cannot reveal the full volume or route.
05

Assessment · Research cut-off: 12 July 2026; population updated 6 September

Mauritania is carrying Mali's war

Conclusion at the stated cut-off

Eastern Mauritania absorbs displacement and public costs from Mali’s conflict. Shared services can support protection and community trust; their security effect is not quantified.

Known limit

UNHCR figures use different dates and population definitions. Survivor testimony remains allegation unless an investigation or court reaches a finding.

Review when

New UNHCR operating data, protection surveys or aid allocations for Hodh Chargui.

12 linked source referencesUNHCR population records, WHO programme reporting, security analysis and reporting from Mauritania. Known limit: UNHCR figures use different dates and population definitions. Survivor testimony remains allegation unless an investigation or court reaches a finding.
06

Assessment · Research cut-off: 12 July 2026

Mali after France: a harsher bargain

Conclusion at the stated cut-off

France left a security model that had lost public trust. Mali’s rulers chose Russian support, while monitors and reporters recorded new civilian-harm allegations and less independent scrutiny.

Known limit

Conflict datasets and reporters cannot capture every civilian death. Daniel treats participant statements and survivor testimony as attributed claims.

Review when

An independent civilian-harm finding, a new transition timetable or a durable change in territorial control.

14 linked source referencesHuman-rights findings, conflict reporting, refugee testimony and a Russian recruitment site. Known limit: Conflict datasets and reporters cannot capture every civilian death. Daniel treats participant statements and survivor testimony as attributed claims.
07

Open-source check · Research cut-off: 12 July 2026; 18 July follow-up added 6 September

The road to Anéfis

Conclusion at the stated cut-off

A completed convoy does not establish routine road access. The subsequently reported 18 July ambush strengthens that distinction.

Known limit

Reporters could not inspect the full route or verify casualty totals, vehicle losses or every participating unit.

Review when

A repeat convoy, verified civilian traffic or geolocated evidence of another withdrawal or attack.

5 linked source referencesAP, Reuters and Le Monde reporting, including statements from the Malian army and the FLA. Known limit: Reporters could not inspect the full route or verify casualty totals, vehicle losses or every participating unit.
08

Research paper · Research cut-off: 10 July 2026

The Sahel: testing the Middle East analogy

Conclusion at the stated cut-off

Analysts can use the analogy to explain transnational conflict and competing patrons. Sahelian social geography, public institutions and displacement patterns require a separate frame.

Known limit

Daniel compares regional systems. He does not claim legal, historical or operational equivalence between the Sahel and the Middle East.

Review when

A change in AES institutions, security patronage, conflict geography or regional displacement records.

13 linked source referencesUN, ECOWAS, World Bank and conflict-index records, with institutional and major-news reporting. Known limit: Daniel compares regional systems. He does not claim legal, historical or operational equivalence between the Sahel and the Middle East.
09

Working paper · Research cut-off: 10 July 2026

The Confederation Test

Conclusion at the stated cut-off

The public record establishes AES political identity more clearly than administrative capacity. Citizens need evidence of rules, services and security outcomes.

Known limit

AES officials have announced institutions and military capacity. They have published few budget or command records that prove implementation.

Review when

A confederal budget, joint-force command rules, measured border performance or a representation mechanism.

8 linked source referencesECOWAS statements, reporting on AES institutions and forces, and International Crisis Group analysis. Known limit: AES officials have announced institutions and military capacity. They have published few budget or command records that prove implementation.
10

Working paper · Research cut-off: 10 July 2026

The Sovereignty Premium

Conclusion at the stated cut-off

Mali and Niger can gain bargaining power through state control. Citizens need contracts, sales and spending records before they can measure public value.

Known limit

Companies and governments have not published every contract term, sale, state-company account or use of resource revenue.

Review when

Audited refinery operations, Somaïr sale or arbitration records, oil revenue disclosures or EITI updates.

8 linked source referencesReporting on gold, uranium and oil projects, with EITI country disclosures. Known limit: Companies and governments have not published every contract term, sale, state-company account or use of resource revenue.

Catalogue maintenance · 6 September 2026

Changes in this review

  1. 01

    The cocaine assessment corrects the 2015–2020 baseline and the cannabis ranking, and narrows its seizure-growth inference.

  2. 02

    The mining update now records the Fekola permit, revised guidance, completed Zijin minority investment and Dasa’s H2 2028 timetable.

  3. 03

    The new seizure-map method note is linked from the homepage and original article. The catalogue and downloadable register include it.

Method

Counts are checks, not grades

A linked source reference means one distinct external source URL in an article’s source desk. A source is counted again when two papers use it. The number alone cannot establish quality.

AI-assisted review examined every article for clarity, dates, source linkage and layout, and checked the central numerical and institutional claims against retrievable sources. Some external pages could not be retrieved or supplied only limited text. The review does not certify every allegation or inaccessible source, and it does not imply personal checking by Daniel.

Download the research register (.csv)
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