Barrick used a 16% WACC to value its Mali mine
Loulo-Gounkoto generated a 53% EBITDA margin in Q2. Its valuation assumptions and excluded Mali costs show why that result does not settle the investment case.
Independent analysis of power, conflict and resources across the Sahel.
LATEST RESEARCH · Method note
What a seizure map cannot prove
A dot can locate an interception. A line between dots introduces a claim about movement. Neither tells us how much cocaine went undetected.
Read the latest articleTHE RESEARCH DESK
More from the research desk
Sahel mining: what changed after July
Fekola’s permit, Allied’s minority investment and Dasa’s revised timetable: five company disclosures checked against the July mining snapshot.
The road to Anéfis
A convoy reached Anéfis; a later ambush showed why one completed journey cannot establish routine control of the Gao road.
Mali after France: a harsher bargain
Mali’s change of security partner is tested against civilian-harm data, refugee testimony and the limits of military control.
Mauritania is carrying Mali’s war
Updated UNHCR counts clarify the scale of displacement. Eastern Mauritania needs shared services and protection alongside border security.
Cocaine across the Sahel: the protection economy
Selected overland cocaine corridors reveal a market for protection. Their traffic share is unknown, and most onward West African movement remains maritime.
RESEARCH AREAS
Three ways into the region
01 / SECURITY
Power & political order
Military partnerships, armed groups and the institutions shaping civilian life.
Read the Mali assessment ↗ 02 / RESOURCESExtraction & public value
Who controls gold, uranium and oil—and what citizens receive in return.
Read the resource paper ↗ 03 / MOVEMENTBorders & displacement
Road access, refugee protection and the costs of conflict across borders.
Read the Mauritania assessment ↗ABOUT SAHEL FUTURES
Independent work.
Open to scrutiny.
Founded and edited by Daniel Spurr in Toronto, Sahel Futures examines the region through public documents, datasets and attributed reporting.
About the project →