Mali and Niger have sought more control over mines, refining and oil exports. Public records are needed to test whether that control produces revenue and services for citizens.
Daniel Spurr10 July 20266 min readOpen-source desk analysis
AUUOILRESOURCE CHAIN
FINDING 01
Governments are changing contracts, ownership and processing plans across the central Sahel.
FINDING 02
Officials need logistics, certification, buyers, finance and technical skills to keep value after extraction.
FINDING 03
Citizens need records that connect state ownership to revenue, spending and risk.
01THE PROMISE
Governments across the central Sahel use mines, refineries and pipelines to assert control over national resources.
Reuters reported the start of construction in June 2025 of a state-majority refinery planned for up to 200 tonnes of gold a year. That is design capacity, not recorded annual throughput. Niger moved to nationalise the SOMAIR uranium venture after a prolonged confrontation with French operator Orano. China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) built a pipeline that turned Niger from a small domestic oil producer into an exporter. Niger needs access to a port in neighbouring Benin.
Military-led governments place resource control beside defence realignment and withdrawal from ECOWAS. They promise to reclaim decisions from officials in Paris, corporate headquarters and foreign institutions.
Citizens have watched mining companies extract minerals while governments collect limited revenue and communities face environmental damage or poor services. Officials publish incomplete contract and ownership records. Governments cite low revenue and closed contracts when they renegotiate.
Governments need more than ownership to create a development dividend. A government can gain an asset while losing access to expertise, transport, finance, certification or buyers. Officials can raise the state’s share while keeping sales and spending out of public view.
VALUE CHAIN
Trace value from licence to public spending
Malian gold
Mali plans a 200-tonne refinery to capture more value after extraction.
Licence · rising: Check whether officials published the fiscal terms and applied them across operators.
Extraction · shared: Check the state share against operator production records.
Refining · planned: Check shipment records and controls on monopoly power.
Export · limited: Verify volume, purity, buyer and beneficial ownership.
Public value · unproven: Trace receipts into budgets and local development.
Nigerien uranium
Niger nationalised SOMAIR before it resolved sales, arbitration and logistics.
Licence · state: Check Niger’s arbitration position and technical staffing.
Extraction · contested: Identify control of the mine, workforce, safety system and inventory.
Processing · thin: Name available conversion and fuel-cycle partners.
Export · blocked or shifting: Publish buyers, prices, transport and safeguards.
Public value · unproven: Connect bargaining gains to predictable public revenue.
Nigerien oil
Niger exports oil through a 1,950-kilometre China-built pipeline and a port in Benin.
Licence · shared: Publish ownership, debt and offtake obligations.
Extraction · foreign-led: Compare local staffing with production records.
Pipeline · interdependent: Check operations during disputes between Niger and Benin.
Export · external: Publish price, transport and repayment deductions.
Public value · early: Check external audits of oil receipts and stabilisation funds.
The status labels summarise the cited evidence at the July research cut-off. They are qualitative assessments, not numerical measures of risk or value.
02THREE TESTS
Gold: moving downstream
Malian officials plan to change where companies capture value through a refinery outside Bamako. Mali has sent gold to foreign refineries. Refinery managers could improve traceability, support technical employment and give officials a clearer view of production and exports.
Refinery managers need feedstock, recognised certification, reliable power, clear pricing and buyers who trust the resulting bars. A state-backed monopoly may give officials control over smuggling and sales. Citizens need public audits to detect secrecy in the new institution and judge its ownership terms, pricing rules or treatment of artisanal production.
Uranium: ownership before resolution
Nigerien officials broke with the old resource relationship through their confrontation with Orano. The government announced the nationalisation of SOMAIR after the French company said it had lost operational control. Nigerien and Orano officials dispute ownership, accumulated stock, arbitration, mine operations and potential buyers.
Nigerien leaders may gain bargaining power through nationalisation. They need secure transport, safeguards, conversion services and qualified customers. Officials may accept a discount or another dependency in a contested sale. Citizens need records on buyers, prices and safeguards to judge the value of the new chain.
Oil: the interdependence lesson
CNPC ships oil from Niger’s expanded Agadem production through a 1,950-kilometre pipeline to Benin. Nigerien and Beninese officials cut cooperation after the 2023 coup and regional sanctions. Officials closed the border, detained personnel and traded accusations, disrupting exports.
On 17 October 2025, Reuters reported that production and exports continued while Niger pressed CNPC over local employment and pay. Nigerien and CNPC officials dispute ownership shares, staffing, skills transfer and revenue distribution.
Citizens judge public value through spending
Governments describe state ownership as public ownership. Citizens receive value when officials record payments, legislatures scrutinise budgets and spending produces services or long-term assets.
Officials can hide revenue in opaque defence expenditure and cite sanctions or conflict to justify secrecy. Corporate managers can delay production during disputes. Officials can mistake a temporary price windfall for a permanent revenue base.
Governments can strengthen their bargaining position by publishing contracts and beneficial owners, auditing volumes and sales, disclosing state-company accounts, protecting community rights and separating stabilisation funds from routine political spending.
FIVE RECORDS TO CHECK
Trace control into public value
01
Terms
Governments publish contracts, licences, state participation and beneficial owners.
02
Volume
An external auditor reconciles production, stocks, losses and exports.
03
Price
Auditors can test sales, related-party transactions and transport deductions.
04
Revenue
Company payments match treasury receipts and state-company accounts.
05
Outcome
Citizens can trace resource income into services, savings and local redress.
CONCLUSION
Governments must publish contracts, sales and spending
Malian and Nigerien officials seek to keep more value through harder negotiations. They carry the burden of proof. Publishing contracts, sales and spending lets citizens test whether resource control delivers public benefit. Disclosure alone cannot guarantee better services or fairer distribution.
SOURCE DESK
Sources and research limits
Research cut-off: 10 July 2026. Research analysis outside the scope of investment advice.
AI-assisted tools supported research, drafting and page production. The sources below carry the factual claims; assessments remain editorial judgements. This clarity review retains the original research cut-off and does not represent a fresh verification of every cited source. Read the method policy.