Research register · 19 July 2026
Writers should place a paper’s expiry conditions beside its conclusion. Daniel states what each Sahel Futures paper says, where its evidence stops and which new fact should force a review.
Daniel reviewed the full catalogue after its first nine papers. He checked titles, dates, reading times, source counts, method notes and the limits he stated in each article.
Daniel does not score a paper or hide judgement inside a colour. He gives you the claim in force, the weakness you should keep in view and an observable event that should reopen the file.
Number check · Research cut-off: 17 July 2026 at 23:59 ET
Editors need to attach the ownership basis, permit condition, cost assumption, transaction status or financing condition to five current company claims.
The B2Gold entry records that Daniel found no later company announcement. It cannot establish the status of Mali’s internal permit process.
A Fekola Regional permit notice, completion of the Allied-Zijin transaction, Q2 mining results or a Dasa financing agreement.
Market note · Research cut-off: 18 July 2026
Loulo-Gounkoto beat Barrick’s first-quarter restart plan. Q2 and Q3 must show whether the mine can deliver its 2026 cost range.
Daniel draws this analysis from one quarter of restart data. Barrick’s production and cost guidance remains forward-looking.
Barrick’s Q2 2026 Loulo-Gounkoto production, capital work, cash costs and AISC.
Assessment · Research cut-off: 13 July 2026
Traffickers move cocaine through several West African and Sahara-facing corridors. Officials, brokers and armed actors sell the protection that keeps those routes open.
Daniel keeps the map at country and hub level. Seizure records identify police contact with the market, but they cannot reveal the full volume or route.
A new UNODC assessment, a court record that names protectors or a seizure that establishes a new country-level branch.
Assessment · Research cut-off: 12 July 2026
Eastern Mauritania absorbs refugees and public costs from Mali’s conflict. Funding protection there also supports border stability.
UNHCR figures use different dates and population definitions. Survivor testimony remains allegation unless an investigation or court reaches a finding.
New UNHCR operating data, protection surveys or aid allocations for Hodh Chargui.
Assessment · Research cut-off: 12 July 2026
France left a security model that had lost public trust. Mali’s rulers chose Russian support, while monitors and reporters recorded new civilian-harm allegations and less independent scrutiny.
Conflict datasets and reporters cannot capture every civilian death. Daniel treats participant statements and survivor testimony as attributed claims.
An independent civilian-harm finding, a new transition timetable or a durable change in territorial control.
Open-source check · Research cut-off: 12 July 2026
The July convoy reached Anéfis and the FLA withdrew from the immediate area. Daniel found no public evidence of routine control over the Gao road.
Reporters could not inspect the full route or verify casualty totals, vehicle losses or every participating unit.
A repeat convoy, verified civilian traffic or geolocated evidence of another withdrawal or attack.
Research paper · Research cut-off: 10 July 2026
Analysts can use the analogy to explain transnational conflict and competing patrons. Sahelian social geography, public institutions and displacement patterns require a separate frame.
Daniel compares regional systems. He does not claim legal, historical or operational equivalence between the Sahel and the Middle East.
A change in AES institutions, security patronage, conflict geography or regional displacement records.
Working paper · Research cut-off: 10 July 2026
The AES built a political identity before it built administrative capacity. Citizens will test it at borders, through security and through published budgets.
AES officials have announced institutions and military capacity. They have published few budget or command records that prove implementation.
A confederal budget, joint-force command rules, measured border performance or a representation mechanism.
Working paper · Research cut-off: 10 July 2026
Mali and Niger can gain bargaining power through state control. Citizens need contracts, sales and spending records before they can measure public value.
Companies and governments have not published every contract term, sale, state-company account or use of resource revenue.
Audited refinery operations, Somaïr sale or arbitration records, oil revenue disclosures or EITI updates.
Catalogue maintenance · 19 July 2026
Daniel relabelled “The road to Anéfis” as an open-source check. He did not report from the field. The catalogue now matches the article’s nine-minute reading time.
Daniel replaced two month-only publication dates with their 10 July date.
Daniel added article-level AI method notes to the two founding working papers.
Method
A linked source reference means one external link in an article’s source desk. Daniel counts a source again when two papers use it. The number alone cannot establish quality.
Daniel used a script to compare the catalogue with the article files and count external links. He used AI-assisted tools to review structure and wording. Daniel read the pages, wrote the conclusions and set each review trigger.
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