Barrick’s Mali restart faces a 2026 cost test

Barrick regained control of Loulo-Gounkoto on 16 December 2025 and produced 64,000 attributable ounces in the first quarter of 2026. Mining and processing beat the restart plan. The same filing records a US$200 million April payment to Mali and keeps full-year AISC guidance at US$2,640 to US$2,900 an ounce. Barrick restored production in Q1. Full-year costs will measure the quality of the restart.

64,000 and 80,000 ounces both fit Q1

Barrick owns 80% of the Loulo and Gounkoto companies. Mali owns the remaining 20%. Barrick’s first-quarter table reports 64,000 ounces on the company’s attributable basis. Reuters reported an estimate of 80,000 ounces for the whole complex. Eighty per cent of 80,000 equals Barrick’s 64,000 ounces.

A consistent basis matters because Barrick states its 260,000 to 290,000 ounce guidance on an attributable basis. A comparison between 80,000 gross ounces and that attributable range would overstate the first-quarter contribution by 25%.

Barrick reported 578,000 attributable ounces for 2024, the last full year before the suspension. The 2026 range equals 45% to 50% of that output. Q1 supplied 22% to 25% of this year’s range. Barrick expects production to increase through the remaining quarters, but its own guidance places full restoration beyond 2026.

Barrick deferred critical capital work until Q2

Loulo-Gounkoto reported Q1 AISC of US$1,933 an ounce and total cash costs of US$1,918 an ounce. Those numbers sit below the full-year ranges of US$2,640 to US$2,900 for AISC and US$2,180 to US$2,390 for total cash costs.

Barrick recorded no capital expenditure at the complex in Q1. Management said restart work and a rebased mine plan delayed spending, with critical capital commitments scheduled from Q2. AISC includes minesite sustaining capital but excludes project capital, so the timing and classification of that work will shape later quarters. Barrick kept its 2026 mine-level cost guidance unchanged after Q1.

Compare 2026 with 2024 to see the full scale of the reset. Loulo-Gounkoto produced 578,000 attributable ounces at AISC of US$1,304 that year. Every point in the 2026 AISC range exceeds twice the 2024 figure. Higher royalties account for part of the increase. Lower output spreads fixed costs over fewer ounces, while the restart brings maintenance and development work back into the schedule.

Barrick’s 2026 cost forecast excludes the purchase-price allocation that followed the return of control. Q1 cost of sales included a fair-value increment on inventory. Readers should keep the accounting effect separate from the cash cost of mining each new ounce.

The settlement has three different price labels

Barrick’s 2025 annual report records a US$253 million cash settlement payment on 28 November. The company calls it part of the global settlement. Reuters, citing Bloomberg sources, reported a US$430 million package comprising an immediate payment, VAT-credit offsets and a payment from October 2024.

Barrick then disclosed another US$200 million payment in April 2026 for royalties, penalties and interest tied to the application of Mali’s 2023 Mining Code in 2024 and 2025. The Q1 filing describes that payment as part of a tax reconciliation contemplated by the settlement.

Investors should not add the media-sourced US$430 million package to every company-reported payment without a reconciliation. The records use different periods and categories. Cash, tax offsets and accrued obligations affect valuation in different ways. Barrick’s next filings should show whether the April transfer closed the historical cash claims.

Through the settlement, Mali ended the provisional administration, courts dismissed criminal proceedings, Barrick withdrew its ICSID claims and the state renewed the Loulo permit for ten years. Barrick accepted the new fiscal regime. Loulo-Gounkoto now carries an 18% average royalty rate under the 2023 Mining Code. The company based its 2026 guidance on a gold price of US$4,500 an ounce, so a higher gold price raises the royalty charge included in cost metrics.

Barrick must restart each mining area

Mali’s February permit renewal reduced a major tenure risk. Mali said Barrick’s new feasibility study identified six years of open-pit mining and 16 years underground, with gross annual production of 420,920 ounces. That estimate uses the full mine basis and describes the longer-term plan. Barrick’s 2026 attributable guidance describes the restart year.

Barrick reports 390,000 tonnes mined underground and no open-pit tonnes in Q1. The plant processed 689,000 tonnes at a 92% recovery rate. Barrick said mining and processing beat its restart schedule, which gives investors evidence that the plant and underground operation can deliver.

Barrick faces another test at the open pits. Reuters reported in May that Gounkoto Mining Services planned to leave Mali and cut more than 600 jobs. The contractor had managed extraction at Gounkoto and Yalea North, and neither area had resumed when Reuters published its report. Reuters said local contractors had restarted Baboto and Gara West. Barrick and the contractor did not answer Reuters’ questions.

Barrick can settle this question through mine-level reporting. Investors need tonnes, grade and strip ratio by source, plus the sustaining capital required to restore the sequence. A rising quarterly ounce count would carry less value if it depended on stockpiles while mining areas or development work stayed behind schedule.

Barrick must prove the cost curve in Q2 and Q3

Barrick has cleared the first operating hurdle. The company processed 689,000 tonnes, sold 69,000 attributable ounces and generated US$341 million of mine-level revenue in Q1. It kept the group’s 2026 production and cost guidance unchanged.

Barrick’s next two reports should separate the cost of deferred capital work from the mine’s new fiscal terms. Production figures should show whether the company can rebuild output across the complex after a year of suspended operations and provisional administration.

The evidence supports a staged recovery. Loulo-Gounkoto has operating momentum and a renewed permit. It carries half-scale guidance, an 18% royalty and a full-year AISC range above twice its 2024 level. Investors can frame the 2026 case around those figures.