"Publication","Type","Series","Route","Published","Updated","Research cut-off","Reading time","Linked source references","Evidence base","Current conclusion","Known limit","Review trigger"
"What a seizure map cannot prove","Method note","Method desk","/research/what-a-seizure-map-cannot-prove","6 September 2026","6 September 2026","6 September 2026","5 min read","1","UNODC’s 2024 assessment; historical data and an illustrative arithmetic example. No new September seizure cases.","Interception, route continuity, market growth and ownership each require separate evidence.","This note adds no new seizure cases or estimate of total traffic.","A source correction or connected case record that changes the route interpretation."
"Sahel mining: what changed after July","Number check","Current desk","/research/sahel-mining-number-check","18 July 2026","6 September 2026","6 September 2026; filings through 13 August","6 min read","8","Eight issuer publications, including quarterly results, permit confirmation and completed transaction announcements. Calculations are reproducible; operating conditions were not independently inspected.","The five assets face different disclosed conditions; update each from its own filings.","Issuer disclosures and arithmetic; no independent site inspection. Guidance is conditional.","Next operating results, revised guidance, completed Dasa financing or a material regulatory change."
"Barrick used a 16% WACC to value its Mali mine","Analysis","Current desk","/research/barrick-mali-cost-test","18 July 2026","6 September 2026","13 August 2026","11 min read","6","Barrick annual and quarterly filings and company announcements. One quarter of restart data does not establish steady-state costs.","Loulo-Gounkoto can generate a strong quarterly operating margin while Barrick’s valuation discounts its future cash flows.","The 16% WACC is not a pure sovereign-risk measure. The 53% EBITDA margin is not a complete cash-return measure.","H2 production and AISC, final Mali tax reconciliation, completed purchase-price allocation or the North American IPO prospectus."
"Cocaine across the Sahel: the protection economy","Assessment","Current desk","/research/sahel-drug-routes","12 July 2026","6 September 2026","13 July 2026","13 min read","12","UN drug-market reporting, a UN sanctions account, police cases and field reporting. Known limit: Daniel keeps the map at country and hub level. Seizure records identify police contact with the market, but they cannot reveal the full volume or route.","Traffickers move cocaine through several West African and Sahara-facing corridors. Officials, brokers and armed actors sell the protection that keeps those routes open.","Corrected the 2015–2020 baseline and cannabis ranking. Seizure growth alone cannot establish market growth.","A new UNODC assessment, a court record that names protectors or a seizure that establishes a new country-level branch."
"Mauritania is carrying Mali's war","Assessment","Current desk","/research/mauritania-carrying-malis-war","12 July 2026","6 September 2026","12 July 2026; population updated 6 September","10 min read","12","UNHCR population records, WHO programme reporting, security analysis and reporting from Mauritania. Known limit: UNHCR figures use different dates and population definitions. Survivor testimony remains allegation unless an investigation or court reaches a finding.","Eastern Mauritania absorbs displacement and public costs from Mali’s conflict. Shared services can support protection and community trust; their security effect is not quantified.","UNHCR figures use different dates and population definitions. Survivor testimony remains allegation unless an investigation or court reaches a finding.","New UNHCR operating data, protection surveys or aid allocations for Hodh Chargui."
"Mali after France: a harsher bargain","Assessment","Current desk","/research/mali-after-france","12 July 2026","6 September 2026","12 July 2026","10 min read","14","Human-rights findings, conflict reporting, refugee testimony and a Russian recruitment site. Known limit: Conflict datasets and reporters cannot capture every civilian death. Daniel treats participant statements and survivor testimony as attributed claims.","France left a security model that had lost public trust. Mali’s rulers chose Russian support, while monitors and reporters recorded new civilian-harm allegations and less independent scrutiny.","Conflict datasets and reporters cannot capture every civilian death. Daniel treats participant statements and survivor testimony as attributed claims.","An independent civilian-harm finding, a new transition timetable or a durable change in territorial control."
"The road to Anéfis","Open-source check","Current desk","/research/road-to-anefis","12 July 2026","6 September 2026","12 July 2026; 18 July follow-up added 6 September","6 min read","5","AP, Reuters and Le Monde reporting, including statements from the Malian army and the FLA. Known limit: Reporters could not inspect the full route or verify casualty totals, vehicle losses or every participating unit.","A completed convoy does not establish routine road access. The subsequently reported 18 July ambush strengthens that distinction.","Reporters could not inspect the full route or verify casualty totals, vehicle losses or every participating unit.","A repeat convoy, verified civilian traffic or geolocated evidence of another withdrawal or attack."
"The Sahel: testing the Middle East analogy","Research paper","Founding series","/research/sahel-middle-east-analogy","10 July 2026","6 September 2026","10 July 2026","10 min read","13","UN, ECOWAS, World Bank and conflict-index records, with institutional and major-news reporting. Known limit: Daniel compares regional systems. He does not claim legal, historical or operational equivalence between the Sahel and the Middle East.","Analysts can use the analogy to explain transnational conflict and competing patrons. Sahelian social geography, public institutions and displacement patterns require a separate frame.","Daniel compares regional systems. He does not claim legal, historical or operational equivalence between the Sahel and the Middle East.","A change in AES institutions, security patronage, conflict geography or regional displacement records."
"The Confederation Test","Working paper","Founding series","/research/confederation-test","10 July 2026","6 September 2026","10 July 2026","6 min read","8","ECOWAS statements, reporting on AES institutions and forces, and International Crisis Group analysis. Known limit: AES officials have announced institutions and military capacity. They have published few budget or command records that prove implementation.","The public record establishes AES political identity more clearly than administrative capacity. Citizens need evidence of rules, services and security outcomes.","AES officials have announced institutions and military capacity. They have published few budget or command records that prove implementation.","A confederal budget, joint-force command rules, measured border performance or a representation mechanism."
"The Sovereignty Premium","Working paper","Founding series","/research/sovereignty-premium","10 July 2026","6 September 2026","10 July 2026","6 min read","8","Reporting on gold, uranium and oil projects, with EITI country disclosures. Known limit: Companies and governments have not published every contract term, sale, state-company account or use of resource revenue.","Mali and Niger can gain bargaining power through state control. Citizens need contracts, sales and spending records before they can measure public value.","Companies and governments have not published every contract term, sale, state-company account or use of resource revenue.","Audited refinery operations, Somaïr sale or arbitration records, oil revenue disclosures or EITI updates."